Australian Open – Roger Federer v Igor Andreev (Tuesday, January 19, 03:00 GMT)
The game airs live on bet365, who are airing every other match from the 2010 Australian Open - LIVE!
The Australian Open begins for Roger Federer later today against Igor Andreev, the 36th ranked player in the world.
It comes as absolutely no surprise that Federer's price has come in way too short to bet for this match as he is both a talented and very popular player. The only question, in terms of making a straight up pick for the match, is if Andreev is worth taking at the price that he is offered at.
For those interested in Federer's odds, head over to Blue Square, where at time of writing he is priced at 1/50. But just because we're noting the best price we could find on Fed, that doesn't mean we're tipping him here.
Without question, Federer is the favourite in the match but at such a short price he's not worth backing unless you've huge stakes to place with and even then, if Andreev gets himself in the match at all, you'll be in for a rough couple of hours.
Instead, getting involved on the 11/4 with bet365 on Federer winning the tournament outright or the even money with the same firm on him reaching the final is a better bet.
Andreev is as short as 10/1 with some firms but on Monday afternoon could be backed at 20/1 with Boylesports and in all honesty, it has to be said that there is some value there. When you look at Andreev, what you find is a moderate threat - the type of player that has a big victory here and there but loses to some pretty shoddy competition at times too.
He hasn't played a match yet in 2010, but was active in 2009 in a year that included a third round appearance at the Australian Open as well as other moderate Slam success including a defeat to James Blake.
The only big win Andreev had over a top player last season was a victory over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - and Tsonga is no Federer.
But sometimes long-shots are still priced too long and when that is the case, you have to bet them. You'll lose 90% of your bets or more when you work with long-shots, but when someone comes in at 20/1, that will make up for all the misses!
Based largely on Federer's questionable form over the last few months, the bet here has to be for Andreev at such a big price or instead to bet in-play with bet365 and check out their set betting and other special markets.
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