Novak Djokovic enjoyed a record breaking season in 2011 with his run of 41 successive victories unlikely to ever be repeated. Even after losing in the French Open the Serb couldn't be stopped and he added the Wimbledon and US Open titles to his Australian Open crown, meaning that the world number one finished the year holding three of the four Grand Slam trophies.
The confidence that Dokovic garnered last year cannot be quantified. He powered to six wins in six matches against Rafael Nadal, all in finals, and beating Roger Federer in five of his six meetings with the Swiss ace. He also won two from three against Andy Murray, with the Scot only winning when his opponent retired through injury.
That means that 'The Djoker' will head to Melbourne Park knowing that he is better than any of his biggest challengers, which means that he will be comfortable with the favourite tag that has been placed on his head by bookmakers, who are terrified of once more being hurt by the Serb.
SportingBet are top price of 27/20 that Djokovic wins the Australian Open title and it is difficult to see how he will fail to make it four Grand Slams out of five.
His biggest threat is expected not to be from Nadal or Federer, who are 7/1 and 4/1 respectively with
BetVictor, but from fourth seed Andy Murray. The Scot had a fantastic Asian swing, winning titles in Bangkok, Tokyo and Thailand. He may have floundered slightly at the ATP Tour Finals and his forced withdrawal was a worry, but he showed that he was back to full fitness when winning the Brisbane International last week. The British number one looked composed and played better as the tournament progressed. His dropped just 17 games in four sets against Marcos Baghdatis, Bernard Tomic and Alex Dolgopolov, who are all talented players.
Murray is 11/2 at
Ladbrokes to win the Australian Open but he has fell in the final in each of the last two years and was eliminated from the other three three Grand Slams at the semi final stage. His problem is that he simply cannot beat the very best players when it comes to the crunch and his scheduled semi final meeting with Djokovic is likely to decide who will win the title at Melbourne Park. At the moment Djokovic, who holds a 6-4 head-to-head lead, has to be fancied although the fact that Ladbrokes are refunding bets on the Serb, should Murray win the title, is a fantastic insurance offer. The Magic Sign make the Serb 5/4 and it could be worth taking the slightly reduced odds with Murray as cover.
There are, of course, some lively outsiders in Melbourne with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro both expected to mount challenges. They can be backed at 22/1 each with
SportingBet but neither really possess the movement and speed around court to be win at the highest level. Tsonga was beaten by both Kei Nishikori and Jurgen Melzer last week in Kooyang and Del Potro lost to Marcos Baghdatis in Sydney. The Agentine is coming back to full fitness but he still lacks consistency and is fallible. He has the capacity to reach the final of the Australian Open but he is also capable of capitulating to an unheralded player.
Of the dark horses there are three other players that make appeal with youngsters Milos Raonic and Bernard Tomic two that could kick start their careers with a big fortnight in 2012's first Grand Slam. Raonic recently won the ATP Chennai and his powerful serve and booming forehand will be well suited to the courts at Melbourne Park. He may not be able to win the tournament but at 100/1 with
SportingBet he could offer a good trading opportunity. Similary, Tomic is too big at 125/1 with the same firm, particularly as he beat three of the top 15 players in the world last week in Kooyang. He will be confident and, crucially, well supported by the passionate Aussie crowd and that could see him produce a career defining display in his homeland.
Finally, a player to keep an eye on is Gael Monfils, who can be backed at 100/1 with
totesport. The Frenchman showed when beating Rafael Nadal in Doha that he has the potential to be one of the world's top players. He is, however, incredibly frustrating and prone to errors. He is now 25 years old and the fact he has never gone beyond the semi finals in a Grand Slam is a major issue. Will he fold at the final hurdle, should he get that far?
That won't be the case with Djokovic, who proved in 2011 that he possesses the mental strength to win major honours. His likely path to the final will be Paolo Lorenzi, Radek Stepanek, Raonic, Murray. The Serb would be confident of winning all of those matches and then one would expect him to continue his dominance over Nadal, Federer or Del Potro in the final.
Recommendation
Win Market - Novak Djokovic (5/4,
Ladbrokes*)
*Stakes refunded if Andy Murray wins 2012 Australian Open